Super Swell Confirmed – Get Ready Rincon!

Would you just look at that! I mean, just look at it! It broke the chart! This swell is going to be massive. Saturday looks like the last day for regular humans to surf the normal breaks. After that it will be the super tucked away nooks and crannies for the most of us. For the big wave chargers, the biggest surf we’ve had all year will be readily available. This thing is really happening. It’s amazing to watch it on sat images. It’s what I’ve mind-willed so many times, except this time it’s actually doing it. If the center of the storm drops in latitude, the push will amplify things even more and make this a solid week-long event. The wind is currently forecast to be a bit intense, but if the high pressure fights back a little bit we might be ok here in Rincon. This will be due to the forced easterly angle on the local winds (if that happens).

SAFETY WARNING!

The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Massive Swell Event Begins Formation get ready to surf Rincon!

I doubted this thing for a while, but the models have been dead set on it’s formation long before the weather elements to make this event really existed prominently. Today is the first physical confirmation that the elements will actually behave as forecast. Notice the arrows around the low pressures in the NE United States? See how it more resembles an NFL down the middle running play? What your seeing forecast is something that just about every surfer has ever talked about happening, “what if, like, all the low pressures got together and formed one giant storm.” Historically, this does not happen very often in the manner that we are about to see. Appreciate it folks, we’re going to see something awesome happen here. The high pressure is already moving out more east and leaving the pocket open for the first batch of low pressure to hit the ocean. All the other nearby lows appear to be moving toward that pocket. Within a couple of days we should see for certain if we end up with the super-storm or not. As I watch the latest satellite loops I almost can’t believe my eyes – it’s actually happening. If everything stays on track we should see very large waves for the entire work week next week. Monday and Tuesday could be the biggest days of the season with sets well over triple overhead. Every tucked away nook and cranny should be surfable so pick your favorite “it only breaks when it’s huge” spot and have fun. If you are a big wave surfer, get ready for some of the biggest Tres Palmas we’ve seen in a while.

Short Term Forecast

We should continue to see perfect overhead surf with double overhead sets on Friday and Saturday with some head high to 2ft overhead sets on Sunday. The wind is forecast to calm down a bit, but with the super storm forming I can’t imagine the high pressure won’t have something to do with that as well so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit more wind from the high pressure than anticipated. The latest forecast change puts some south wind in the mix which is common when a big storm and NW swell is being made. The north side of Rincon might be the place to be at times.

SAFETY WARNING!!!!!

That’s five exclamation marks. The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

I want to believe…

But I don’t. This looks more like another NE long period swell setup, not a NW swell setup. However, if the crazy dip in the jetstream from that west coast storm can sweep across the US and dip out low in the Atlantic, we’ll see a massive swell actualize. All of the models still consistently peg a big storm in the North Atlantic right in our swell window over the weekend so hopefully I’m wrong and we get another swell of the decade setup. If I’m right about the way I see it, we’ll see another long period NE swell fill-in by middle of next week. If I’m wrong, we’ll see a NNW long period swell fill in by early next week followed by a long period NE swell from the back end of the storm to last the rest of the week. All in all, looks like we win either way.

Short Term – Perfect Surf in Rincon.

The buoys have been pinging with long period swell all across the Atlantic. From this evening through the weekend we should see perfect overhead waves with double overhead sets on the right tide when the swell maxes out on Friday. Bear in mind that the weather system that created this swell is very far away. I’m anticipating lulls. If everyone is crowding one break, it could get hectic. The wind is forecast to finally calm down and will hopefully offer clean morning sessions for the north facing beaches here in Rincon. With plenty of swell in the ocean and calm winds, several spots should be working all over Puerto Rico. No need to crowd one spot.

Safety Warning!

There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Another round of long period swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

That massive storm in the middle of the Atlantic is impressive! It appears that a very strong long period swell will be spread across the entire North Atlantic by the end of the week. After an extremely windy, rainy, and weak wind-swell laden February, March is forecast to start off with a bang! Though Thursday, March 1st is the official arrival date of the new swell, some of the more reliable models are calling for the front-runners to hit by Wednesday evening. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning will mostly be just small scale wind-waves so I imagine everyone will be eagerly awaiting the next swell. Getting in on the early pulse without a crowd seems unlikely. However, the winds “might” calm down a bit and open up more opportunities for other Rincon spots during the coming swell event. This is going to be the key to crowd control in Rincon. All of February was pretty much unsurfable for the north facing beaches of Rincon. If that side can get clean again in the mornings, a lot more spots will be available and help to mitigate the heavy crowds. This has been a very crowded season so far and the weather pattern hasn’t been helping matters. Expect Thursday and Friday to have overhead surf with powerful long lines. The swell is coming from very far away so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a decent amount of time in between sets. Patience and timing will be key.

Another swell on the horizon.

The long range models are putting a major storm right off the coast of the US towards the end of the forecast period with a possible long-period NW swell to follow. Though I really want to see this materialize, I am hesitant to jump on board with this scenario. High pressure has taken center stage so much lately. Unless the blocking high can be forced out of the way for a small amount of time, the storm will most likely have to go up and over like every other storm. There would still be the possibility for another open ocean NE long-period swell from the same weather system – that would be the scenario most likely to happen. In this case, the next pulse would show up about a week from now which would be consistent with the current pattern. The argument for the NW swell panning out is that the current and past weather pattern is somewhat uncharacteristic for this time of year and the earth might try to play catch-up with a late season dip and shift in the jetstream. We should have a better idea of what is going to happen later in the week.

Heavy winds and more wind swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

What’s that? Oooooooh you wanted waves, NOT wind. Sorry. Just got wind. I’ve put writing this forecast off for so long because i was waiting for a change in the weather. The change hasn’t happened. High pressure continues to dominate and amplify over the Northern Atlantic. None of the winter storms or cold fronts dip out into our swell window. It’s been a long stretch of this pattern so hopefully it will change soon. The wind however is not currently forecast to relent, not even for a day. The light at the end of the tunnel comes about a week from now when hopefully some longer period NE swell might show up from way up North in the Atlantic. It will have to be quite the powerful swell to push through the still 20-30mph ENE winds that just won’t stop. In the meantime, the short period wind swell will be all we have for the next 7-10 days. At least there has been some small windows at some of the more exposed breaks for a fun session to be had. If you can catch a tiny break in the wind with the tide low enough, the small waves can be fun. If you’re a beginner or wanting to learn how to surf, Rincon will be your dream come true for the next week and a half. The tucked away spots continue to have a small peeler perfect for beginners and lessons.

Flatspell on the horizon for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Here’s the good news. The ocean has one last pulse to throw at us from weather we were seeing all week. I expect that the initial NW angled front-runners will show up by this evening. Friday morning should be really fun and around head-high with some sets a couple of feet overhead. Saturday will drop a little bit and slowly fade out. After that we have a bit of a flatspell on tap from what is happening in the ocean right now. More exposed spots on the north side of the island should still see some ride-able surf with windy conditions in the chest high range. I’ll try to update again on Sunday to have a better look at how the next week is going to go. As of now, it’s looking like flat. Models are calling for the latest cold-front to be blocked by high pressure and go up and over our swell window. I’m tired of this happening. If the jetstream can dip we could see a classic cold-front swell. It’s the time of year to see that happen so I hope this cold-front defies it’s current forecast. If you’re thinking of coming to Rincon to learn how to surf then you will actually be very happy to be here. The waves will still be good for surf lessons here in Rincon. Thrill-seekers will have to go elsewhere.

Windy surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

High pressure is taking the spotlight behind the last winter storm and setting up a very decent fetch. The good news is that this setup will make some big waves. The bad news is that it will also bring a lot of wind and be a very short period in relation to the swell height. Four feet at 10 seconds is generally pretty fun. 10 feet at 10 seconds can be a bit more taxing on the paddle out. If the winds stay a little more easterly here in Rincon, the tucked away spots could still be pretty fun through this next major swell event. I anticipate the surf to start showing up by tomorrow and max out in size on Sunday or Monday. We will probably see weak leftovers until late in the week where we could see a NW pulse start to fill in. The models have been picking up on the NW swell next weekend consistently for a while. Granted I’m still stoked on the last NW swell that showed up so I’m inclined to be overly hopeful at the prospect of another NW swell. Let’s see what happens. Stay safe and have fun!

Major Swell Event – Surf in Rincon!

Now this is a storm! We should expect to see decent conditions persist through the weekend with moderate size. This storm is positioned nicely and a welcome change to our previous weather pattern. The bulk of the NW swell from this storm should hit earlier in the weekend and arrive by tomorrow. NW swells tend to show up early. Most models are calling for the main push on Sunday, but judging by the storms current location and associated winds I think it will get here early. The angle will be perfect for getting a lot of the tucked away spots working without the heavy wind of the previous swell event earlier in the month. This means that the early morning glass could last longer into the day. We’ve already been seeing surf show up that has been considerably better than the forecast models have predicted and even more solid than was measured by real-time data. I’m inclined to think that this weekend’s swell could get big when it maxes out. Expect decent leftovers for early next week. Because the storm is forecast to setup a nice fetch behind it, a long-period NE swell can be generated from this storm as well. The long-period swell setup will be what to look for at the start of next week, and if confirmed we will stay surfing with swell in the water into next weekend.

High pressure dominates again – small surf continues.

If you’re thinking about coming down to learn how to surf, you’ll have the most perfect conditions for that every single day. If you want waves bigger than knee to waist high, you’ll have to wait. High pressure is setup over the entire North Atlantic and jamming things up again. The fronts aren’t pulling out into the ocean and just continue to stay over land and wreak havoc on the NE United States. Why can’t they just go off to sea? I want it, people in the NE US want it, everyone wants them to just blow out and away at sea. Unfortunately it’s just not what is happening. This pattern is supposed to persist for another week to 10 days so don’t expect any major surf during that time frame. This puts us towards the end of the month for the next likely swell event. Sorry folks.

Cold-front bombs out giving surf to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Now we’re talking! This storm is a beast and it rapidly intensified right in our swell window. Sorry for all the folks in the NE United States who are going to get rocked by this massive storm. I hope you’re alright when this is all done. Bombogenesis is actually a real thing and is associated with some of the biggest swells to hit PR and unfortunately the most winter destruction in the northern latitudes at the same time. This storm definitely “bombed out” big time and will give us the first big swell of 2018. Expect some perfect Tres Palmas this weekend and just about every other spot performing as it does in a classic winter swell. Due to what I’m seeing on the Bahamas buoys, I’m inclined to think we’ll see the swell show up a bit bigger than what the automated surf forecast systems are anticipating. We’re definitely going to see double overhead conditions and possibly bigger. DO NOT PADDLE OUT IF YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU’RE DOING IN BIG WAVES! I really don’t want anyone to die surfing this storm. Please do not overestimate your abilities or underestimate the power of the ocean. As surfers we are always at the mercy of the elements. We are only in control of our own actions and nothing else. If the ocean wants to throw a 20ft clean-up set at you, it will and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can only control where you are when that happens. For many, sitting on the beach watching will be the safest place to be when that happens.

More reasonable surf should be on tap for the coming week and offer plenty of “normal” waves that will still pack a punch. As of right now we’ve already had a couple of days of surf from this weather system and it looks like another week of rideable waves will follow. Plenty of opportunities at several spots should be available in the coming week so there’s no need to crowd one break. Expect a little bit of size to drop off each day, but if the right pattern sticks, we could see another decent long period swell by the end of next week to keep everyone surfing through the first half of January. I guess after a very quiet December surf-wise, the earth is trying to catch back up. Be safe everyone! Have fun!