Weaker weather means smaller waves for surfing Puerto Rico.

After an amazing past few days, the surf in Rincon will start to quiet down. We will stay small to flat for most of the week with the exception of Wednesday/Thursday. This will be due to the weaker weather systems pulling off the states and less fetch. If things amplify and organize a little bit more we could be looking at another big swell. However, none of the models are picking up on this scenario and most likely we will stay small and have more wind. Wind chop should continue with some size up on the north side of Puerto Rico. I’ll update again after another couple of model runs. The possible conditions for Wednesday/Thursday should become more clear soon.

Long Period Swell on the way! Get Ready to Surf!

I held off on updating this forecast as long as could. Why? Because I didn’t want to get everyone’s hopes up only to be let down. That possibility still exists, but I can’t hold this in any longer! We’re looking at a solid run of long period NE swell with light winds. We’re talking a possible five straight days of perfection just about everywhere. When the possibility exists for conditions to get this good, the disappointment can be devastating if things don’t play out as anticipated. So take the following with the knowledge that nothing concrete is on the buoys just yet. Under the current forecast, the north side of the island should be a couple feet overhead or bigger with looooong lines and barrels at the most exposed breaks. Other spots up there should be going off as well. Rincon will be smaller, but still fun. I’m expecting around head high with some bigger sets and really long lines. Just about everywhere should be glassy in the morning, and Rincon should stay glassy most of the day at west facing spots.

Here’s how i see it playing out:

Tuesday: Small to flat in Rincon with some longboard and learner waves. Outside buoys should see long period swell as confirmation for things to come.
Wednesday: Still small here in Rincon – maybe waist high.
Thursday: Swell finally builds through the day to chest to head high and super glassy conditions.
Friday: Head high with bigger sets and a bit of a wait between sets and super glassy conditions.
Saturday: Perfect waves for the Volcom Contest! Head high with bigger sets and super glassy conditions. Random lulls off and on.
Sunday: Chest to head high and glassy.
Monday: Waist to chest high and glassy.

That high pressure isn’t leaving any time soon – wind swell continues.

We should continue to have some leftover groundswell linger over the next couple of days, but the wind swell from the impenetrable high pressure system over our side of the Atlantic will continue for another week. The angle of the wind swell will gradually shift to a more easterly direction which will leave Rincon small to flat early next week. By mid-week next week we might see another front pull off the states. As for this week, expect the size of the surf to drop off a little each day of the forecast period.

I’ll try to update with a play by play for each day later on.

Surf is on the way! Get ready.

Well it seems that that our collective mind willing worked to get the storm out over the ocean sooner and stronger than previously forecast. Unfortunately I guess we all forgot to add a lower latitude push to our telepathic requests. The storm has in fact pushed out to sea and intensified, however it’s way up North by Nova Scotia. This means that the swell will need more time to get here. Arrival is still set for Monday. The period should be decent as we have hard north winds in our swell window with a decent fetch. The swinging of the trough can still put some NNW angle on it as well. Next week is going to rage! Unfortunately so will the winds so we might have some nastiness mid week.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Friday: Pretty much flat, but maybe a knee high crumbler at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday: Some knee high cumblers for day 1 of the contest with super glassy conditions and no wind.
Sunday: Some waist high peelers for day 2 of the contest with glassy conditions and light wind. Hopefully we’ll see some chest high sets on occasion.
Monday: Swell shows up with a decent period and should be a couple feet overhead on sets and powerful early morning. By the end of the day we should see double overhead surf. The wind will pick up slightly but should be just the right amount of offshore for west facing spots to go off all day.
Tuesday: Swell sticks around with a bit more wind. The surf should stay in the 2-3ft overhead range through the day.
Wednesday: Massive windy swell in the double overhead range working only at super protected spots.
Thursday: Even more massive double to triple overhead gnarly wind swell with tucked away nooks and crannies working fairly well (i hope).

This is the storm that could be making some waves next week!

So far Monday and Tuesday seem to be when the models are calling for some swell to show up from the storm above. Bear in mind that we are still several days out and the a lot of things have to happen for this to pan out. If the storm strengthens a bit and pulls off the states sooner, we’ll see some swell sooner. This is what everyone who is doing the contest this weekend and who is involved in throwing the contest is hoping for. If enough people stare at this storm on sat images and mind-will it to strengthen and dip out into the Atlantic early, it just might happen. Seasonally, however, it’s more likely to come in a little later than expected. Plus the models are giving the storm a bit of a higher latitude track which tends to delay swell arrival on account of the swell being generated further away from our island. The period is looking a bit longer with this scenario though. Only time will tell.

Here’s what is currently forecast to happen:

Wednesday – Leftover wind swell in the waist high range with some bigger sets and clean conditions in the morning.
Thursday – Mushy background swell in the knee to waist high range perfect for surf lessons.
Friday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Saturday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Sunday – Lake flat conditions most of the day with some knee high wind chop by the evening.
Monday – Chest to head high and glassy conditions in the morning. Swell will build to a few feet overhead by the end of the day with strong winds as the swell fills in.
Tuesday – 2ft Overhead with some double overhead sets and windy in the afternoon. Find wind blocked spots and surf to your hearts content. The swell period should be decent and provide plenty of power.

Swell in the short term, small in the long term.

It looks like plenty of swell has finally been built up in the Atlantic to keep Rincon happy with surf from Sunday through Tuesday. Expect surf to build into waist to chest high on Sunday with light winds and glassy conditions for the first half of the day. On Monday the swell should be decent in the head high range with clean conditions in the first half of the day. Tuesday will stay chest to head high in the morning with fading conditions as the days go on. Beyond that we will have small surf in Rincon until the next week. Notice all the high pressure over the states in the image above? That’s what is going to dominate most of the week and next weekend and why this next swell probably won’t work after Tuesday here in Rincon. The north side of the island should have some decent sized wind swell with semi-sloppy conditions every day of the week. It definitely won’t be flat up there, but the form will probably not be the best. Should the winds relax one night, the morning could be fun!

Possible big swell in the extended forecast.

Granted, 10 days out in the forecast period carries a ridiculous level of uncertainty. However, after a bit of a flatspell from mid-week through the weekend, it would make sense that something major would be on the horizon that far out. A few of the prediction models are starting to anticipate a lower latitude cold front right in our swell window for a decent NW swell. This scenario is what I will be watching for closely as the week goes on.

Another round of swell for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

It looks like the super trough is going to pull out into the Atlantic far enough and have a fairly strong high pressure build in behind it. This means we should see some bigger surf this weekend into early next week, but the form might not be perfection. There might be a lot of wind out there in the ocean. Also, as a general rule of thumb, high pressure swell tends to be bumpy and wobbly. Tucked away spots that are protected from the wind should groom it up nicely though.

Here’s how I see the next few days playing out:

Thursday: Small to flat conditions perfect for surf lessons.
Friday: Small to flat conditions possibly too small for even surf lessons.
Saturday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range and rough seas and heavy wind.
Sunday: Head high with sets in the 2-3ft overhead range with calmer conditions and lighter wind.
Monday: Probably the best form and longer period swell with offshores at west facing beaches. The surf should still be a couple of feet overhead on sets. There might be a bit of wait between bigger sets as well.
Tuesday: Chest to head high cleaner leftovers with a choppy afternoon.
Wednesday: Knee to waist high surf lessons wave at most exposed breaks.

Weaker storm, higher latitude, smaller surf for Rincon.

We have had an incredible run of swell for the past two and a half weeks. This coming week will quiet down a bit and be a more traditional weak cold front swell with shorter period and more NNE angle than what we’ve gotten used to over the past few weeks. We should stay chest to head high for most of the new week with bigger sets on Tuesday and Wednesday. The mornings should be glassy, but the afternoons will probably be super windy. The position of the storm still lends itself to about two days of setup and swell generation time before the surf will pick up again so I’m thinking Monday might start off small. If the storm moves out quicker and gets it’s northerly fetch going earlier, Monday will start off bigger. Have fun!

Surfing NW swell in Rincon all week – happy dance!

The buoys are firing! This swell is gonna rage. The wind is the hard part to predict. From the looks of things, we’ll have glassy conditions everywhere in the early morning hours and every spot should be working. In the afternoons we might have onshore seabreeze everywhere or dead winds at random unless something more dominant takes control of the wind. I still expect to see some double overhead conditions when the bulk of the pulse shows up either tomorrow or Wednesday, but for the most part this swell shouldn’t be out of control. The surf should be powerful and have decent form. I love NW swell. This storm dipped off the states below NC so we should see a lot of west in this swell. The Bahamas buoy is currently reading 14ft at 13 seconds from the WNW. I expect to see at least half of that reach into Rincon with another few seconds on the period for good measure out of the NW. This storm looks beautiful on sat images! It’s moving away from us fairly quickly, but some decent fetch should setup behind it. I expect chest to head high conditions to persist through the end of the week and hopefully into the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday will be considerably larger with some double overhead sets.

The wind swell shows up in Rincon!

The wind swell was solid on the outside buoys for about a day and a half after making my previous post. Today was the arrival so we could still see some of the wind waves show up through tomorrow after all. Granted, the form is a bit wobbly, but the there isn’t too much onshore wind at the beach so the rides are still fairly decent. Sunday is still looking like flatsville.

Next week’s swell is looking awesome!

It won’t be as huge as initially anticipated, but the next coldfront swell is going to be high quality! NW angle and long period in the 15 to 16 seconds range means a heavier wave with a lot of power. Even if the swell height doesn’t get much higher than 4-6ft, that angle and long period will make some sick sets near double overhead. Everyone play nice and have fun. Stay safe! If you’re out of your league, stay out of the water.