Tropical Storm Karl forecast to walk the line.

Everyone who has been keeping up with my forecasts knows how much I believe in Karl. But I don’t like the trend I’m seeing on a lot of the model runs. The models keep putting Karl on a Northerly path into oblivion too early to really give us a shot at surf. The current forecast has him walking the thin line between flatness and solid surf. 65W is that line. If he can make it to that zone, there should be everything he needs to become a major hurricane. Plenty of hot ocean water, moisture, and low shear waits for him right in our swell window. If he can’t get to it, all hope is lost. TD 13 is a waste of time. All I’m going to say about that storm is that it will dissipate far away from us and go down in history as being the most insignificant tropical weather system of all time. Julia just couldn’t get it together. Karl we need you to come through for us!

Tropical Storm Julia moves East – this could be a game changer!

She is really close to our NW swell window. If she can muster up some strength during her 5 day walkabout off the coast of the Carolinas we could see some decent swell. She’s not very strong, but she’ll be circling around in a prime spot for NW swell generation. I really hope she can get it together. As long as she stays out to see and gets a bit more organized we could see a NW swell in the next 5 days.

Karl! Good to see you!

This track is what I was hoping for. I hope he sticks to a westerly route headed our way and then moves north as he approaches the islands and strengthens. 65W to 70W and 25N to 30N would be the ideal target. I’m doubling down on Karl (referred to in previous posts as 95L before he became a named storm). Any swell under this scenario is over a week out so there’s plenty of time for this to go completely wrong, but I have faith in this one.