Big swell and massive surf on the way to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

All I can think about is riding it! The outside buoys just recorded 11ft at 16 seconds. This swell event is confirmed, and it is confirmed big. The big stuff should start pumping tomorrow evening and max out overnight. Wednesday will still be pretty big probably seeing 2-4ft overhead surf with heavy conditions. The rest of the week should see the leftovers in the not so huge range with favorable winds. The initial pulse of this swell event will be big. If your automated tools are saying 6ft and you’re thinking, “oh, that’s head high” you are dead wrong! 6-7ft at 16 seconds makes a wave most people call double overhead. Clean-up sets could be even bigger. The period is pretty much the power of the waves. It’s why 7 second period waves aren’t really waves at all here. 16 seconds and higher is fat and heavy and will throw hard. Additionally, the face height can seem almost double the measurable swell height. Know your limits and assess the risks appropriately.

Tropical Storm Earl will make surf for Puerto Rico.

Looks like the persistent disturbance has finally got itself organized into a Tropical Storm. The current track is a little closer to Puerto Rico than originally hoped for, but this won’t change things too much. Earl will fight some shear in the next day or two but after that, he should have favorable conditions. So expect an initial pulse to fill in tomorrow from the movement of the storm. By Wednesday we could see groundswell fill in. The Isabela area should already start to see some waves showing up, but the offshore winds won’t show up until Sunday. Have fun out there and stay safe!

First shot at tropical surf for the 2022 hurricane season.

After a very long, flat wait we have something on the long range models to watch closely. The formation of a tropical system directly in our swell window has been a consistent feature of many model runs. The exact timing is quite uncertain but Saturday and Sunday keep getting pegged as possible swell arrival days. The image above is a wind forecast image rendered for next Saturday. Thursday and Friday of the coming week will probably be good at East Coast and North Coast Spots for the initial arrival regardless of development due to the location of the disturbance. So we might have some swell for a few days, that’s the good news. The bad news – an already overcrowded, no off-season, Rincon will have waves on a holiday weekend. Crowds are going to be terrible at the main breaks. Foam board carnage is forecast to increase drastically as Costco boards fly off the shelves. Those with the right ace up their sleeve and the patience to go for a long walk will be able to find uncrowded surf when the wind goes south and NW swell fills in. That’s the other good news. Also a note to all visitors – RESPECT THE LOCALS AND CONTROL YOUR BOARDS!

Photos by: Mo Money