Tropical Depression Two Might Give Rincon Surf!

Don’t everyone look at once, but we have a tropical depression out in the Atlantic. I said don’t everyone look at once! We don’t want to scare it away. Now I know she ain’t much to look at right now, but there’s a closed circulation in there somewhere. If the current forecast sticks, we should see TD Two form into a Tropical Storm tomorrow. If the west side of the storm can get it’s act together we have a shot at some NW swell late in the forecast period. The current path moves the storm away from us and the steering currents responsible for that should at least put some Easterly swell on the beaches up in Isabela. The southerly surface winds form the storm should keep it glassy up there and at all North facing beaches. I don’t think we’ll have much in Rincon this weekend but a little bump in the knee high range will probably stick around. Early next week into mid-week is when we get a better shot at decent surf depending on what happens over the weekend. I’m keeping close tabs on this one. I want some tropical swell!

Weekend Update – Surf is on the way!

Tomorrow morning will be flat. The models are calling for the swell to arrive on Saturday. Buoy data has me hoping that we might see some swell creep in tomorrow afternoon, but more than likely we won’t see it until Saturday. The swell event looks to last from Saturday through the coming Monday with smaller and windy conditions persisting through most of next week. The biggest day will probably be Sunday. The winds are currently forecast to be light on Sunday as well. This means just about every Rincon spot should be going off with head high glass and bigger sets into the 3ft overhead range. The angle is most likely going to have some NNE tilt in it which can make for some long rides if the period can stay above 12 seconds. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s good to see the end of December lining up to have more surf. Overall, this has been a pretty slow December wave-wise. Have fun out there, don’t get in fights, pick a less crowded spot, and surf your brains out!

Plenty of surf on the way!

We’ll stay small and weak until Sunday, but on Sunday we should see the new swell come in. Look for head high conditions in the morning with a slight build through the day into the 2ft overhead range with glassy conditions for the west facing beaches. There shouldn’t be excessive amounts of wobble in the surf and the angle will be mainly from the NNE. A lot of spots should be super fun. After Sunday, the surf is currently forecast to stick around for pretty much the entire work week. Have fun!

Rincon is about to go off – Get ready to surf!

We have some coldfronts trapped between two high pressure systems. This will turbo charge the fetch from the north over the next couple of days and create a fair amount of swell. Look for overhead conditions on Wednesday and Thursday, with chest to head high surf on Friday. Here’s where it gets crazy, next weekend is looking double overhead and bigger on the latest model runs. If it happens, it will be the first big swell of the season.

The quality of the surf could be really good!

The wind forecast for all of the days of surf is mainly light and variable winds with a tendency toward ESE flow for next week. Solid swell with dead winds means the mornings should be super glassy with clean conditions lasting well into the afternoon until the onshore seabreeze picks up everywhere. There should also be almost endless options for spots since there will be adequate swell and favorable winds for just about every surfing beach in Puerto Rico. Find an uncrowded break and surf yourself into oblivion.

Are we all gonna die?!

I certainly hope not. I do not believe this storm will cause as much damage as the sensational news reports would have us all believe. I started to see the current forecast track as a possibility a couple of NHC forecast updates prior – the storm would end up getting picked up north just enough to hit our little island straight across. As a rule of thumb everyone should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Be prepared to be without water and power for at least three days and possibly a week if we get more than we bargained for.

What I think will actually happen:

The storm is picking up some strong winds, but it’s a tiny storm and it’s favorable conditions for strengthening will soon come to an end. Hurricane Danny will be sheared and dried up to a very weak tropical system by the time it gets close to our island. I think the forecast track will shift a little more north than it’s current route. I see a tropical blob quickly passing over San Juan, but covering most of the island with rain early next week for about one day. The forward speed is forecast to accelerate as it passes us and this is one scenario that has always remained for every forecast update from the NHC. The realistic damage that I foresee is some flash flooding in the Caguas area and the super drought stricken south end of the island. The wind won’t be too bad, but it doesn’t take much to knock the power out for a day or two. I think what a lot of people don’t realize is that many neighborhoods lose power at least twice a week for 4-8 hours at a time. Areas prone to losing power will probably lose power for a day or so regardless of what this storm does.

What about the surf?

As the storm approaches, the east coast and southeast corner of Puerto Rico will see some big ground swell. If you can time it right to get favorable winds before the destruction ensues you’ll be able to find some sick barrels at many of the hidden spots over there. The north side of the island will see some head high surf with crazy currents and sideshore winds. Rincon will probably get some waist high wind wobblers. If the storm can regenerate over the Bahamas we might get some kickback from the NW. Since the storm will always be moving away from Rincon, the chances of considerable surf are low. If this thing can blow up again off the coast of FL or NC then we can start to hope for bigger surf with south winds.