After a terrible flatspell, there is hope for surfing Puerto Rico.

We will continue to stay small to flat for the next few days, but we finally have some hope on the horizon. This flatspell during prime season has been rough and depressing. Hopefully all of that comes to an end on on the 7th of January, 2016. This coming Thursday should see something. The possible swell has been pegged consistently on model runs and if the trough can get it’s predicted swoop out in the Atlantic as planned, we should see some fun head high surf and decent conditions. Small to flat conditions will persist until then. Let’s wait and see.

Possible big swell a week out; not much until then.

This high pressure blocking our swell window has been intense. Almost the entire first half of March has been wind fest. It looks like that will continue to be the case. My guess is that the entire month of March continues a lot of wind, but at least we might get more swell to punch through. I’ve been watching the long range model runs for a change all month and the 18th and 19th have been consistently seeing a nice storm right in our swell window. The runs consistently put the low right where we needs it to be to get some N to NNW swell going.

What about Sunday?

Sunday should be fun with some chest to head high surf and occasionally bigger sets with waist to chest high leftovers on Monday morning. Some of the automated surf forecast sites threw up some crazy false positives on a major swell event for Sunday – they were horribly mistaken and now correcting toward a more realistic outcome. I think I’m right on this one because I’m not seeing anything on the buoys to suggest otherwise.

So Two days next week and one day this weekend? That’s it for the rest of March?

Not necessarily. Looks like after the 17th we see a change in the flow off the states with more storms trying to dip down and out. Some are currently forecast to push through and others are not. I think after a non-stop February, we were due for a bit of slow down. That came in the first couple of weeks in March. I think the second half of March is going to rage.

January 19th-21st Next Possible Swell – Knee to Waist Until Then

It kind of stinks that the entire forecast can be summed up in that one sentence, but it’s true. From now through Sunday, Rincon will have knee to waist high surf with clean conditions in the morning and horrible wind chop in the afternoons. Some days might just be barely surf lessonable knee high sets. Next week however will see some swell. Right now it’s looking like a head high swell for a couple of days (which is fun) starting next Monday. The GFS has been going bonkers with the 21st through the 24th on just about every run. The actual system changes each time, but it keeps putting something noticeable around that time. That’s the next date range to hope for something big again.

This past swell was super fun!

This past swell was a perfect reminder of a common winter time swell for Rincon, Puerto Rico. We used to see swells like this every week (sometimes twice a week). When the swell has a little bit of west in it, we tend to see the surf show up a little earlier and last a little longer than the one and done NE swells. Granted we really only had one big day with that past storm, but there was something to surf all weekend and even today. That was good. This January is not doing well in comparison to other years. I hope that changes and we start to get more consistent surf. When we get more consistent runs of swell, the vibe is so much more positive, there’s more opportunities to surf without a million people, and this is a great place to be.