Super Swell Confirmed – Get Ready Rincon!

Would you just look at that! I mean, just look at it! It broke the chart! This swell is going to be massive. Saturday looks like the last day for regular humans to surf the normal breaks. After that it will be the super tucked away nooks and crannies for the most of us. For the big wave chargers, the biggest surf we’ve had all year will be readily available. This thing is really happening. It’s amazing to watch it on sat images. It’s what I’ve mind-willed so many times, except this time it’s actually doing it. If the center of the storm drops in latitude, the push will amplify things even more and make this a solid week-long event. The wind is currently forecast to be a bit intense, but if the high pressure fights back a little bit we might be ok here in Rincon. This will be due to the forced easterly angle on the local winds (if that happens).

SAFETY WARNING!

The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Massive Swell Event Begins Formation get ready to surf Rincon!

I doubted this thing for a while, but the models have been dead set on it’s formation long before the weather elements to make this event really existed prominently. Today is the first physical confirmation that the elements will actually behave as forecast. Notice the arrows around the low pressures in the NE United States? See how it more resembles an NFL down the middle running play? What your seeing forecast is something that just about every surfer has ever talked about happening, “what if, like, all the low pressures got together and formed one giant storm.” Historically, this does not happen very often in the manner that we are about to see. Appreciate it folks, we’re going to see something awesome happen here. The high pressure is already moving out more east and leaving the pocket open for the first batch of low pressure to hit the ocean. All the other nearby lows appear to be moving toward that pocket. Within a couple of days we should see for certain if we end up with the super-storm or not. As I watch the latest satellite loops I almost can’t believe my eyes – it’s actually happening. If everything stays on track we should see very large waves for the entire work week next week. Monday and Tuesday could be the biggest days of the season with sets well over triple overhead. Every tucked away nook and cranny should be surfable so pick your favorite “it only breaks when it’s huge” spot and have fun. If you are a big wave surfer, get ready for some of the biggest Tres Palmas we’ve seen in a while.

Short Term Forecast

We should continue to see perfect overhead surf with double overhead sets on Friday and Saturday with some head high to 2ft overhead sets on Sunday. The wind is forecast to calm down a bit, but with the super storm forming I can’t imagine the high pressure won’t have something to do with that as well so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit more wind from the high pressure than anticipated. The latest forecast change puts some south wind in the mix which is common when a big storm and NW swell is being made. The north side of Rincon might be the place to be at times.

SAFETY WARNING!!!!!

That’s five exclamation marks. The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

I want to believe…

But I don’t. This looks more like another NE long period swell setup, not a NW swell setup. However, if the crazy dip in the jetstream from that west coast storm can sweep across the US and dip out low in the Atlantic, we’ll see a massive swell actualize. All of the models still consistently peg a big storm in the North Atlantic right in our swell window over the weekend so hopefully I’m wrong and we get another swell of the decade setup. If I’m right about the way I see it, we’ll see another long period NE swell fill-in by middle of next week. If I’m wrong, we’ll see a NNW long period swell fill in by early next week followed by a long period NE swell from the back end of the storm to last the rest of the week. All in all, looks like we win either way.

Short Term – Perfect Surf in Rincon.

The buoys have been pinging with long period swell all across the Atlantic. From this evening through the weekend we should see perfect overhead waves with double overhead sets on the right tide when the swell maxes out on Friday. Bear in mind that the weather system that created this swell is very far away. I’m anticipating lulls. If everyone is crowding one break, it could get hectic. The wind is forecast to finally calm down and will hopefully offer clean morning sessions for the north facing beaches here in Rincon. With plenty of swell in the ocean and calm winds, several spots should be working all over Puerto Rico. No need to crowd one spot.

Safety Warning!

There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Another round of long period swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

That massive storm in the middle of the Atlantic is impressive! It appears that a very strong long period swell will be spread across the entire North Atlantic by the end of the week. After an extremely windy, rainy, and weak wind-swell laden February, March is forecast to start off with a bang! Though Thursday, March 1st is the official arrival date of the new swell, some of the more reliable models are calling for the front-runners to hit by Wednesday evening. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning will mostly be just small scale wind-waves so I imagine everyone will be eagerly awaiting the next swell. Getting in on the early pulse without a crowd seems unlikely. However, the winds “might” calm down a bit and open up more opportunities for other Rincon spots during the coming swell event. This is going to be the key to crowd control in Rincon. All of February was pretty much unsurfable for the north facing beaches of Rincon. If that side can get clean again in the mornings, a lot more spots will be available and help to mitigate the heavy crowds. This has been a very crowded season so far and the weather pattern hasn’t been helping matters. Expect Thursday and Friday to have overhead surf with powerful long lines. The swell is coming from very far away so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a decent amount of time in between sets. Patience and timing will be key.

Another swell on the horizon.

The long range models are putting a major storm right off the coast of the US towards the end of the forecast period with a possible long-period NW swell to follow. Though I really want to see this materialize, I am hesitant to jump on board with this scenario. High pressure has taken center stage so much lately. Unless the blocking high can be forced out of the way for a small amount of time, the storm will most likely have to go up and over like every other storm. There would still be the possibility for another open ocean NE long-period swell from the same weather system – that would be the scenario most likely to happen. In this case, the next pulse would show up about a week from now which would be consistent with the current pattern. The argument for the NW swell panning out is that the current and past weather pattern is somewhat uncharacteristic for this time of year and the earth might try to play catch-up with a late season dip and shift in the jetstream. We should have a better idea of what is going to happen later in the week.

Heavy winds and more wind swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

What’s that? Oooooooh you wanted waves, NOT wind. Sorry. Just got wind. I’ve put writing this forecast off for so long because i was waiting for a change in the weather. The change hasn’t happened. High pressure continues to dominate and amplify over the Northern Atlantic. None of the winter storms or cold fronts dip out into our swell window. It’s been a long stretch of this pattern so hopefully it will change soon. The wind however is not currently forecast to relent, not even for a day. The light at the end of the tunnel comes about a week from now when hopefully some longer period NE swell might show up from way up North in the Atlantic. It will have to be quite the powerful swell to push through the still 20-30mph ENE winds that just won’t stop. In the meantime, the short period wind swell will be all we have for the next 7-10 days. At least there has been some small windows at some of the more exposed breaks for a fun session to be had. If you can catch a tiny break in the wind with the tide low enough, the small waves can be fun. If you’re a beginner or wanting to learn how to surf, Rincon will be your dream come true for the next week and a half. The tucked away spots continue to have a small peeler perfect for beginners and lessons.

Flatspell on the horizon for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Here’s the good news. The ocean has one last pulse to throw at us from weather we were seeing all week. I expect that the initial NW angled front-runners will show up by this evening. Friday morning should be really fun and around head-high with some sets a couple of feet overhead. Saturday will drop a little bit and slowly fade out. After that we have a bit of a flatspell on tap from what is happening in the ocean right now. More exposed spots on the north side of the island should still see some ride-able surf with windy conditions in the chest high range. I’ll try to update again on Sunday to have a better look at how the next week is going to go. As of now, it’s looking like flat. Models are calling for the latest cold-front to be blocked by high pressure and go up and over our swell window. I’m tired of this happening. If the jetstream can dip we could see a classic cold-front swell. It’s the time of year to see that happen so I hope this cold-front defies it’s current forecast. If you’re thinking of coming to Rincon to learn how to surf then you will actually be very happy to be here. The waves will still be good for surf lessons here in Rincon. Thrill-seekers will have to go elsewhere.

Windy surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

High pressure is taking the spotlight behind the last winter storm and setting up a very decent fetch. The good news is that this setup will make some big waves. The bad news is that it will also bring a lot of wind and be a very short period in relation to the swell height. Four feet at 10 seconds is generally pretty fun. 10 feet at 10 seconds can be a bit more taxing on the paddle out. If the winds stay a little more easterly here in Rincon, the tucked away spots could still be pretty fun through this next major swell event. I anticipate the surf to start showing up by tomorrow and max out in size on Sunday or Monday. We will probably see weak leftovers until late in the week where we could see a NW pulse start to fill in. The models have been picking up on the NW swell next weekend consistently for a while. Granted I’m still stoked on the last NW swell that showed up so I’m inclined to be overly hopeful at the prospect of another NW swell. Let’s see what happens. Stay safe and have fun!

Some High Pressure and a weak front = small waves for Rincon.

This past swell turned out to be a lot of fun! In the coming week we look to stay small to flat for most of the time. A steady flow of ENE wind swell will be on tap the entire time, so the North side of the island should be a lot of fun with light winds in the mornings. Because Rincon doesn’t really pick up ENE wind swell that well, we will only see small, mushy longboard waves and surf lesson waves. A lot of action seems to be going on across the states weather-wise so I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another decent swell after this next flat spell.

Just a little while longer and the flatness will be no more.

By tomorrow morning we should start to see the new swell fill in. The winds are forecast to be light so I’m thinking that just about every surf spot in Rincon should be breaking perfectly in the morning. By the afternoon we will experience a light onshore flow on both sides of Rincon for most of the days this week. The lower latitude spring time Low Pressure System combined with a powerful High Pressure behind will dump fun waves at us from mid-week through the weekend. I’m stoked! Here’s how i see it playing out.

Wednesday: Waist to Chest High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with occasionally bigger sets.
Thursday: Chest to Head High glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning with some bigger sets.
Friday: 2-3ft Overhead glassy at all Rincon Breaks in the morning with dead winds most of the day.
Saturday: Chest to Head High glass in the morning with waist to chest high afternoon waves on the west side of Rincon once the winds pick up.
Sunday: Waist to Chest High leftovers at the more exposed breaks.
Monday: Waist High leftovers at the most exposed breaks.
Tuesday: Possible Building swell starting off Waist High and Ending Head High and bumpy.

It’s not looking good – no surf for Rincon.

The forecast is simple – we will stay flat for the next 10 days. But I guess I owe it to everyone to at least explain why. Looking at the weather chart above, if all the of the H’s were L’s and all the L’s were H’s we would have the biggest and best swell of all time. Unfortunately, that’s the opposite of what we have now. All of the fetch over the Atlantic pushes waves away from Rincon, not towards it. Wind around a high pressure system spins clockwise and wind around low pressure systems spins counterclockwise. There is a weak front trying to push off the states that might make a waist high background swell at some point, but that is about it.

Where can you find waves?

Spain and Portugal will be on fire next week. Can’t go over there? If you’re spring break is starting to look broken, don’t worry. The north coast of the island should have a decent supply of wind swell the remainder of the month. Mornings can offer at least a semi-clean wave and there is enough coastline to avoid extreme crowds if you’re willing to surf a sloppier wave. Easterly wind swell limits your options though and you will need to find a spot that is very exposed to have any size in the surf.