Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 1, 2016

More surf brewing for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

We will fade to flat over the weekend while the next higher latitude cold-front amplifies out to sea and hopefully dips a little bit. Either way, we should see a decent fetch and resulting north swell. Watching how this materializes over the weekend will be crucial to knowing what will actually happen next week. So far all of the models have been pegging mid-week as the biggest pulse. I’m happy to be seeing such consistent flow of cold fronts so far this season. I hope it keeps up. We’re about due for another big swell soon so I’ll be keeping an eye on the long range models for an early heads up.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.