Active weather means more surf!
Just look at all that activity in the Atlantic. We have a weak front forecast to develop into a gale, tropical waves pulling off Africa, and a monster low over the states. In the short term we will see the next pulse show up Thursday – nothing major but a little waist to chest high action here in Rincon (maybe some head high surf at the more exposed spots) with some bigger conditions on the North side of the island. Friday and Saturday stay rideable but small. Sunday we should see some long period swell show up and build into Monday. By then we should have a good idea of what to expect from the monster low over the states for late next week. I expect early week conditions to fade out after Monday. So far we have had a very consistent October. So far we have more than the usual crowd for this time of year as well. Play nice everyone and be respectful. Remember too that if you choose a super crowded spot, you should anticipate some frustration. If you don’t know where else to go, hit me up and I’ll guide you around.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.