Surf Alert – Mystery swell to show up for one day only!
The flatspells of this season have been brutal. I apologize for the lack of updates to the report and to the forecast. I’m going to try and step it up a notch. In all honesty though, there hasn’t been much to report. Nonetheless, we have about a 15 hour swell event headed our way. The timing of arrival will be very important. If the swell shows up tonight at around midnight that means that only the early morning session tomorrow (Friday) will have decent surf. If the swell shows up in the morning, the whole day should be filled with fun waves. However, the morning session will most likely be the best. We have NW and W winds just about every day now in Rincon. It’s as if the weather switched. We used to have E and ENE winds as a somewhat constant feature of the weather with a few odd days when they would go SW or W. Now we have NW winds every day in Rincon and E and ENE winds as the odd ball.
What happens the day after tomorrow?
More flatspell and surf lessons background swell. There has never been a better season for surf lessons. NE background swell should wrap into Rincon around knee high for the next 10 days. If you want me to teach you how to surf, shoot me an email. It will be perfect surf lessons conditions. Everyone else – go to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Ecuador, El Salvador, Hawaii, or Indo.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.