Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 13, 2023

Hurricane Lee Massive Storm, Massive Surf.

Now that’s what I call a windfield! It’s easy to get caught up in just the wind speed, the low pressure, or the category strength of a storm. Unfortunatley, all of that doesn’t matter much if the wind field is small. In the case of Hurricane Lee, such a large wind-field affects more of the ocean and as a result creates more swell in all directions. It is also not lacking in high wind, low pressure, and a major hurricane. What I’m getting at is today and tomorrow will most likely be double overhead and even bigger at more exposed locations. In other good news, as the storm moves away, we will have another 5 days or so of decent surf on the slow decline. Plenty of good sessions to be had. The other good news is that by that time we’ll be looking at the next long track storm with the next possible swell.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.