Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee is About to Lay Some Massive Surf Down!

It’s September and we finally had a drop in the wind shear with a long track storm that pulled off Africa. With the insanely hot water temps, and no wind shear around, Hurricane Lee turned into a Category 5 Hurricane overnight. Intensity will fluctuate randomly from this point, but the wind-field will continue to expand and the eye of the storm will go through regular replacement cycles. The forecast path of the storm basically has it meandering right in our swell window. High surf advisories will be in effect. This swell is going to rage. I am pretty amped that we’ve had very consistent surf without the usual crowds that have destroyed my stoke the past few seasons. I got to surf a few days ago without having to dodge a single foam board. It was amazing. We should have literally a week of perfect waves (maybe longer) from this storm once the swell shows up. The north side of the island will see the goodies first, probably at the end of the weekend. Then starting next week we should have some NE angled long period swell for most of next week in the head high to a couple feet overhead range. If Lee really does stay due north of the island and continue to pump, we could see some N and NNW long period swell show up next weekend. We could easily see some double-overhead action. There will be plenty of spots to surf and the vibe is finally pretty chill right now. Don’t mess that up. Everyone play nice and have fun.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.