Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Aug 31, 2023

Multiple Tropical Systems Finally Give Rincon, PR Surf!

2023 and this is what we need to finally get some decent surf – three large tropical weather systems and a powerful trough to push them eastward. We’ve had Hurricane Franklin as a huge storm right in our swell window for a long time. I can remember weaker storms being in the same place doing the same thing and having waves for weeks. I have no idea why the earth doesn’t like to give Rincon waves this Hurricane Season, but all of that is about to change. Starting from today we should see at least a week of solid chest to head high surf with some bigger days scattered in. The tides will be important. Tropical swell tends like incoming tides. The varying water levels at the beach will also affect the breaking wave though so a lot of spots might be bigger on the incoming tide, but closing out more unless you know the right chunk of reef or sand bar that will be working well with all that extra water. The multiple storms will also result in multiple swells which will sometimes play nice with each other, and sometimes will get in each other’s way. Though we will have good waves, there will still be lulls and fluctuations. Stay patient, spread out, and have fun.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.