Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 16, 2023

Windy Windswell Continues for Surfing Puerto Rico

The next 5-7 days will have plenty of small to medium sized surf with plenty of wind. Expect conditions to fluctuate regularly as multiple windswells and groundswells come and go as they please. It’s why for the most part some chest high surf should persist at most Rincon beaches. However, the wind will definitely limit which surf spots will have clean conditions. We have heavy wind for as long as the forecast models can see. In the long term, I’ve been anticipating the pattern of late season fronts forming hybrid system in March. What we’re seeing now with such high pressure persisting over Puerto Rico helps support a pattern shift in march where systems can push into our swell window better and amplify. For now we have a windswell high pressure pattern probably through the end of February.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.