Major Swell Event for Surfing Puerto Rico.
Over the weekend we had the necessary weather for this week’s starter waves. However, that system was a bit sporadic and violent. The resulting waves were big on arrival but quickly faded away. The surf was also prone to fluctuation throughout the day. This next event, however, is looking quite impressive in real time data. We should see some longer period swell show up on Thursday and last through the weekend. There will be waves. The quality of those waves may be poor for most of the swell event. The strong high pressure over the island and resulting extreme winds will not only work against the incoming swell, it may throw it’s own wind wave into the mix which may serve to spoil what would otherwise be perfect waves. So the moral of the story is don’t expect perfection the entire time. There may be good moments each day where things line-up, but if you fly down specifically for this swell just know that it won’t be perfect the whole trip and the bigger days may be challenging.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.