Small Windswell Continues with Better Surf on the Horizon.
Here in Rincon we will continue with small scale, mushy, bumpy, weak, wind swell. These conditions will persist through the weekend. But there is hope. If the current model trends materialize, we could see a massive fetch setup that would dump some sizeable surf with a couple of clean days our way. We’ll know on Saturday and Sunday if the weather is actually on track to dump a decent swell at us for next week. Don’t get too amped up though. STRONG high pressure is forecast to build in behind the storm system which would result in heavy trade winds. The good stuff might only be a couple of days before more wind slop dominates. Overall, I’m expecting February to be kind of terrible but I expect big things for this March. More on that as things develop. For now, enjoy the ocean’s sloppy joe’s and look for some actual decent days early next week possibly.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.