Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 12, 2022

Big swell and massive surf on the way to Rincon, Puerto Rico.

All I can think about is riding it! The outside buoys just recorded 11ft at 16 seconds. This swell event is confirmed, and it is confirmed big. The big stuff should start pumping tomorrow evening and max out overnight. Wednesday will still be pretty big probably seeing 2-4ft overhead surf with heavy conditions. The rest of the week should see the leftovers in the not so huge range with favorable winds. The initial pulse of this swell event will be big. If your automated tools are saying 6ft and you’re thinking, “oh, that’s head high” you are dead wrong! 6-7ft at 16 seconds makes a wave most people call double overhead. Clean-up sets could be even bigger. The period is pretty much the power of the waves. It’s why 7 second period waves aren’t really waves at all here. 16 seconds and higher is fat and heavy and will throw hard. Additionally, the face height can seem almost double the measurable swell height. Know your limits and assess the risks appropriately.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.