Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 30, 2023

September in November – Plenty of Surf for Puerto Rico

November Outlook: We have an ocean full of heat and a northern hemisphere trying desperately to cool off. Seasonally, we will start to see more fronts pull off the Eastern US this time of year. The high heat in the Atlantic combined with the unending march of tropical waves off Africa means that we will continue to see tropical disturbances from lower latitudes pulled north and interact with the frontal systems. The end result is a consistent flow of surf. Not the best quality of surf at times. Swell generated from multiple systems tend to make for challenging beach conditions when everything doesn’t line up just right, but hey – at least we’re not going to be flat. The tropics interacting with cold-fronts is generally a September type of scenario, but we’re seeing it happen right now at the end of October into the start of November. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a hurricane form in December.

Near Term: Puerto Rico will continue to see smaller scale surf all week. The wind flow will most likely remain dead in the mornings and south in the afternoons. We can all hope for more rain in Rincon as satellite imagery is showing a lot of moisture on it’s way to the island. The tide sensitive spots will also be the best bet for getting a little more size throughout the background swell fluctuations. My advice is the mid-high to high incoming stretch at shallower breaks. Have fun!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.