Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 27, 2016

Swell in the short term, small in the long term.

It looks like plenty of swell has finally been built up in the Atlantic to keep Rincon happy with surf from Sunday through Tuesday. Expect surf to build into waist to chest high on Sunday with light winds and glassy conditions for the first half of the day. On Monday the swell should be decent in the head high range with clean conditions in the first half of the day. Tuesday will stay chest to head high in the morning with fading conditions as the days go on. Beyond that we will have small surf in Rincon until the next week. Notice all the high pressure over the states in the image above? That’s what is going to dominate most of the week and next weekend and why this next swell probably won’t work after Tuesday here in Rincon. The north side of the island should have some decent sized wind swell with semi-sloppy conditions every day of the week. It definitely won’t be flat up there, but the form will probably not be the best. Should the winds relax one night, the morning could be fun!

Possible big swell in the extended forecast.

Granted, 10 days out in the forecast period carries a ridiculous level of uncertainty. However, after a bit of a flatspell from mid-week through the weekend, it would make sense that something major would be on the horizon that far out. A few of the prediction models are starting to anticipate a lower latitude cold front right in our swell window for a decent NW swell. This scenario is what I will be watching for closely as the week goes on.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.