Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – March 1, 2016

This is the storm that could be making some waves next week!

So far Monday and Tuesday seem to be when the models are calling for some swell to show up from the storm above. Bear in mind that we are still several days out and the a lot of things have to happen for this to pan out. If the storm strengthens a bit and pulls off the states sooner, we’ll see some swell sooner. This is what everyone who is doing the contest this weekend and who is involved in throwing the contest is hoping for. If enough people stare at this storm on sat images and mind-will it to strengthen and dip out into the Atlantic early, it just might happen. Seasonally, however, it’s more likely to come in a little later than expected. Plus the models are giving the storm a bit of a higher latitude track which tends to delay swell arrival on account of the swell being generated further away from our island. The period is looking a bit longer with this scenario though. Only time will tell.

Here’s what is currently forecast to happen:

Wednesday – Leftover wind swell in the waist high range with some bigger sets and clean conditions in the morning.
Thursday – Mushy background swell in the knee to waist high range perfect for surf lessons.
Friday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Saturday – Lake flat in Rincon.
Sunday – Lake flat conditions most of the day with some knee high wind chop by the evening.
Monday – Chest to head high and glassy conditions in the morning. Swell will build to a few feet overhead by the end of the day with strong winds as the swell fills in.
Tuesday – 2ft Overhead with some double overhead sets and windy in the afternoon. Find wind blocked spots and surf to your hearts content. The swell period should be decent and provide plenty of power.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.