Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 3, 2016

Surf is on the way for next week.

Surf is on the way! Get ready.

Well it seems that that our collective mind willing worked to get the storm out over the ocean sooner and stronger than previously forecast. Unfortunately I guess we all forgot to add a lower latitude push to our telepathic requests. The storm has in fact pushed out to sea and intensified, however it’s way up North by Nova Scotia. This means that the swell will need more time to get here. Arrival is still set for Monday. The period should be decent as we have hard north winds in our swell window with a decent fetch. The swinging of the trough can still put some NNW angle on it as well. Next week is going to rage! Unfortunately so will the winds so we might have some nastiness mid week.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Friday: Pretty much flat, but maybe a knee high crumbler at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday: Some knee high cumblers for day 1 of the contest with super glassy conditions and no wind.
Sunday: Some waist high peelers for day 2 of the contest with glassy conditions and light wind. Hopefully we’ll see some chest high sets on occasion.
Monday: Swell shows up with a decent period and should be a couple feet overhead on sets and powerful early morning. By the end of the day we should see double overhead surf. The wind will pick up slightly but should be just the right amount of offshore for west facing spots to go off all day.
Tuesday: Swell sticks around with a bit more wind. The surf should stay in the 2-3ft overhead range through the day.
Wednesday: Massive windy swell in the double overhead range working only at super protected spots.
Thursday: Even more massive double to triple overhead gnarly wind swell with tucked away nooks and crannies working fairly well (i hope).

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.