Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 12, 2015

January 19th-21st Next Possible Swell – Knee to Waist Until Then

It kind of stinks that the entire forecast can be summed up in that one sentence, but it’s true. From now through Sunday, Rincon will have knee to waist high surf with clean conditions in the morning and horrible wind chop in the afternoons. Some days might just be barely surf lessonable knee high sets. Next week however will see some swell. Right now it’s looking like a head high swell for a couple of days (which is fun) starting next Monday. The GFS has been going bonkers with the 21st through the 24th on just about every run. The actual system changes each time, but it keeps putting something noticeable around that time. That’s the next date range to hope for something big again.

This past swell was super fun!

This past swell was a perfect reminder of a common winter time swell for Rincon, Puerto Rico. We used to see swells like this every week (sometimes twice a week). When the swell has a little bit of west in it, we tend to see the surf show up a little earlier and last a little longer than the one and done NE swells. Granted we really only had one big day with that past storm, but there was something to surf all weekend and even today. That was good. This January is not doing well in comparison to other years. I hope that changes and we start to get more consistent surf. When we get more consistent runs of swell, the vibe is so much more positive, there’s more opportunities to surf without a million people, and this is a great place to be.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.