Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 19, 2015

Surf all week long!

Though the form and size will fluctuate every day, we should have something to surf every day this week. The weekend isn’t looking too great though. So far this January has been way below average for “good” surf days. We might see things pick up in the last third of this month. I sure hope so. Here’s how it’s looking so far:

Tuesday: Look for chest to head high waves with some sets a foot or two overhead. The winds should be light in the early morning but quickly pick up from the NE by late morning and early afternoon. The north side of Rincon might have a short window in the early morning for good waves without a crowd, but once the winds pick up everyone will pile into every nook and cranny of the wind blocked side of Rincon.
Wednesday: Waist to chest high and glassy conditions earlier in the morning. The more exposed breaks should be working good and stay clean into the early afternoon. The winds are supposed to be lighter on this day.
Thursday: We’re supposed to see another pulse on this day so we might see some chest to head high surf at most Rincon spots with glassy conditions everywhere in the mornings.
Friday: Waist to chest high leftovers fading quickly throughout the day.
Saturday: Great day for surf lessons with knee to waist high background swell.
Sunday: Very small surf lesson wave at the most exposed breaks.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.