Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 25, 2015

January 2015 swell of the season, surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Get ready for what might be the best week of the season!

We are looking a 5 to 7 day run of swell with a couple big days in the mix and a non-holiday weekend. This means crowds “should” be lighter and the multiple days of swell often lead to low-crowd opportunities throughout the week. For me that is what might make this the best week of the season, but another good component is that there is a double pulse of NW swell in the coming week. The NW swell angle with light winds most of the days means that just about every spot in Rincon will be working, which is great for wave quality and another plus for light crowd opportunities. I really hope that this week happens like it’s currently forecast. Weeks like this is what helped me fall in love with this place to begin with. We used to see weeks like this a lot more often. I’m super stoked to have one again now.

Here’s the breakdown:

Monday: Flat (like really flat).
Tuesday: Waist to Chest High with light winds.
Wednesday: Waist to Chest High with light winds.
Thursday: 2-4ft Overhead and bigger with hard ENE winds. The tucked away spots will be cleanest.
Friday: 2-4ft Overhead with less wind than Thursday. The swell will drop off a little in the afternoon.
Saturday: Head High with some bigger sets and light winds. The swell will fade through the day.
Sunday: Chest High leftovers with light winds and fading swell strength and swell angle through the day which will drop it down to waist to chest high and make the waves a little mushier than the previous days in the afternoon.

Note: Thursday and Friday could easily end up seeing double overhead and bigger at some spots if the weather cooperates.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.