Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 27, 2015

The front is dragging it’s feet so the forecast gets pushed back.

We were supposed to see the new swell by now, but it’s not going to happen. The surf forecast has changed because the wave-generating weather system is moving a little slower and not going to dip out as far as previously forecast. We won’t see as big of a swell on Thursday and Friday as originally forecast, but we will see more consecutive days with head high surf now. Not a bad trade off. I’ll take a couple feet notch down in exchange for two to three more days of head high surf. Just have to wait one more day to see it all happen.

Here’s the breakdown:

Wednesday: Small to Flat.
Thursday: Head high with sets a couple feet overhead with hard ENE winds. The tucked away spots will be cleanest.
Friday: Head high with some bigger sets and less wind than Thursday. The swell will drop off a little in the afternoon.
Saturday: Head High with some bigger sets and light winds. The swell angle changes, but the swell height bumps up so the waves should stay the same breaking size all day.
Sunday: Chest High leftovers with light winds and fading swell strength and swell angle through the day which will drop it down to waist to chest high and make the waves a little mushier than the previous days in the afternoon.
Monday: Round 2 begins. New head high NNW swell with a decent period and dead wind. Should see sets a couple feet overhead. This day should be fun!
Tuesday: Chest to head high with bigger sets and similar conditions as Monday. Swell will fade slightly through the day.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.