Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – February 2, 2015

Another week of waves here we come!

This next storm will give us waves pretty much all week. Tomorrow will be smaller than today, and Saturday might be a little on the small side, but for the most part we should stay chest high or bigger. We might even see another big swell by Sunday. We’ll have to keep watching the models and actual satellite feeds to see if it plays out in reality, but at least we finally have a solid change in the weather to an active pattern of swell generating storms.

The Breakdown:

Tuesday: Head high with some overhead sets and light offshore winds in the early morning. The swell will fade in strength through the day.
Wednesday: Waist to chest high at most spots with some bigger sets at the more exposed breaks and light winds for most of the day.
Thursday: Head high with glassy conditions and light winds for most of the day.
Friday: Chest to head high with glassy conditions and light winds for most of the day. The swell will fade out by the evening.
Saturday: Knee high surf lesson waves with glassy conditions in the morning and garbage conditions in the afternoon.
Sunday: Chest to head high in the morning building to overhead conditions by the afternoon. The morning should be glassy, but the winds will pick up considerably in the afternoon. If the wind comes out of the east more than the northeast, the tucked away spots in Rincon could be fun as the bigger stuff fills in.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.