Plenty of weather to keep Rincon surfing!
Though we’re probably not going to see a major swell event this coming week, we have plenty of weather out in the ocean and enough swell on the buoys to see a week of fun waves. Expect waist to chest high conditions as a baseline throughout the week with Monday and Tuesday seeing some overhead sets at the right spot and tide. For the most part the winds should be light in the mornings opening up plenty of opportunities to surf several spots and avoid crowding the usual main breaks. There’s a lot of people on the island right now so I hope the light wind forecast sticks. Next weekend is looking like wind fest with extremely strong winds and bigger swell. We’ll have to see how the weather progresses during the week to confirm. Have fun, use common sense, and be respectful of others.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.