Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 15, 2017

More NW swell on the way for surfing Rincon.

What I like about this weather system is that there has been a steady fetch of wind pointed right at us from off the coast of the Eastern US for the past two days. If the high pressure pushes the system out and keeps that flow we should have several days of NW swell on tap. Tomorrow is going to be very small, but we should see the new NW swell show up by Friday mid-day. By the end of the day Friday expect to see some sets a few feet overhead. Over the weekend the surf should stay in the head high range and stay at least waist to chest high for the start of the coming week. Any dip from the low pressure centers and the swell could increase drastically so it’s worth watching the weather.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.