Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 27, 2016

Tropical Depression Two Might Give Rincon Surf!

Don’t everyone look at once, but we have a tropical depression out in the Atlantic. I said don’t everyone look at once! We don’t want to scare it away. Now I know she ain’t much to look at right now, but there’s a closed circulation in there somewhere. If the current forecast sticks, we should see TD Two form into a Tropical Storm tomorrow. If the west side of the storm can get it’s act together we have a shot at some NW swell late in the forecast period. The current path moves the storm away from us and the steering currents responsible for that should at least put some Easterly swell on the beaches up in Isabela. The southerly surface winds form the storm should keep it glassy up there and at all North facing beaches. I don’t think we’ll have much in Rincon this weekend but a little bump in the knee high range will probably stick around. Early next week into mid-week is when we get a better shot at decent surf depending on what happens over the weekend. I’m keeping close tabs on this one. I want some tropical swell!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.