Wax ’em Up! Get ready to surf!
Yes, seriously. We have some waves coming in. Granted the north side of the island up in Isabela will see most of the size, but we have a nice medium to long period swell set to fill in over the next few days. I am surprised as you are, but it’s a very welcome surprise.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
Thursday: Small in Rincon in the morning with some waist high sets in the evening. Isabela should be head high all day.
Friday: Waist to chest high most of the day and glassy here in Rincon. Isabela/Aguadilla area should reach chest to head high with light onshore winds.
Saturday: Knee to waist high leftovers in Rincon and waist to chest high leftovers in Isabela.
Beyond the weekend:
A lot will depend on what happens with the broad low pressure that is sitting to the Northwest of Puerto Rico. If it can develop into something and strengthen while it’s still in our swell window, we could be looking at some tropical swell late next week.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.