Background swell and flatness for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.
We are in the summer and it’s common to stay flat at this time of year. However, we at least have some longboardable background pulses that should show up over the next few weeks. Because the swell will be quite weak, surfable conditions may come and go at random depending on a variety of factors including tide, wind, and spot. For the most part though don’t expect any swell to rage unless we get a good tropical system in our swell window.
My Tropical Prediction: Active Season.
“It’s too hot for a penguin to be running around, we gotta get you to the zoo!”
– Billy Madison.
This summer is going to be a hot one! Even though it seems the earth is already doing it’s best to channel the heat northward by other means at the moment, we’re still going to see a heavy build up of heat in the tropics. The ITCZ has been blowing up regularly on sat images. Within a month’s time we should have plenty of fuel to develop some storms. Heat is the food source for tropical systems. If we can get some periods of low wind shear we’re bound to see some action in the common development areas of the Tropical Atlantic as the passing waves feast on the unbearable heat of the tropics.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.