Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 14, 2014

Get Ready to Surf! Hurricane Edouward Blows Up!

In an earlier post I was complaining about the strong windshear and dry air in the Northern Atlantic. Well this storm survived the gauntlet and found him self in a low shear and high ocean heat on the other side of the wind shear force field. The result – Hurricane Edouward may become the first (and possibly only) major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Season. This is a real Hurricane people. A solid wind-field, low pressure dropping by the minute, and nothing but open water around him. He will give some parts of Puerto Rico almost an entire week of waves.

What Kind of Surf to Expect:

Rincon: Hurricane Edouward is not predicted to pass 60 degrees West so NW swell is out of the picture. His movement will throw most of his swell everywhere but Rincon. The swell is mainly from the ENE to NE angle, but the period is forecast to be in the 12-14 second range. Rincon can expect to have some glassy waist to chest waves with some head high sets mid-week with fading conditions through Friday.

Aguadilla/Isabela: You will be on fire! As early as Tuesday expect head high plus surf with glassy conditions every morning. The winds may stay light most of the day and glass off again at night. The swell will pretty much rage through the week after that with some double overhead surf at some spots. Smaller leftovers will probably linger through the weekend.

Arecibo, San Juan, and Fajardo: Pretty much the same forecast as Aguadilla/Isabela area except you will see the swell sooner. You will also get the brunt of the swell so a lot of places will be working!

Check the automated model forecast below using my custom viewer. It updates itself every model run to keep you up-to-date on the predicted swell.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.