Wind Shear and Dry Air Keeping the Tropics on Lockdown
We have some tropical disturbances, but they will have a hard time making it into our swell generation zone. Several of the key hotspots for Tropical development are seeing 40 knots of wind shear as you can see in the image above. No swell making tropical system can form in that kind of wind shear. When this happens, storms that do manage to form once steered into some nook that allows a miracle to happen never get a symmetrical wind-field which means no swell for us. The movement of the pressure/open wave can give the North side of the island some waves, but here in Rincon we stay flat. That being said. Isabela might see some waves in two or three days. This month I will be making several posts simply explaining why we will be flat for so long. I’m not looking forward to it.
We will stay flat for a long time. Isabela will have some wind chop over the weekend in the waist to chest high range.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.