Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 23, 2015

Possible Surf Taunts Puerto Rico

We have a lot going on in the Atlantic and it teeters on the fine line between surf makers and flatness. First off, forget Tropical Storm Ida. I told you that those two storms (TD Nine and TD Ten at the time) would amount to nothing and be meaningless – I’ve been right so far. Tropical swell needs a lot of factors working for it to make perfect waves. It does happen at times and makes for memorable swells, which is why everyone gets excited over a new storm forming. However, this is not the year for tropical swells. Now the two lows in the open Atlantic are what we’re looking at. If we can get some easterly movement from the one off the US coast or some downward movement from the one way north of PR we could see some fun waves in the chest to head high range. If they at least just build some northerly fetch on their west sides we should see some waist to chest high waves at many Rincon spots. The winds are forecast to be pretty much dead from here through to next week. Any swell that shows up should be glassy in the morning just about everywhere. So if we do get waves there should be plenty of spots to choose from. Don’t all just crowd one peak.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.