More surf on the way to Rincon!
I’ve been eyeballing the setup all week and have been meaning to update the forecast sooner but it’s been super busy. Sorry. The good news is that we get more surf! More long period NE swell and offshore winds. This is going to be a great swell event. Look for head high surf to fill in by this evening and max out Sunday. Due to the nature of the weather creating the swell, we’ll have residual surf persist through the entire week in the waist to chest high range. Monday and Tuesday are supposed to have south winds so several miles of coastline should be surfable without other people around. If the lower latitude low pressure system that is approaching our island turns into something else, the extended forecast can become even better. What a great April this has been so far!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.