With a weather map like that we should have waves right now, but we don’t.
Expectations did not align with reality on this one. This week was supposed to stay around waist to chest high. I think we just have too much south wind. It’s blown the weak swell flat or pushed it away from us. You’d think with all the fetch setting up in the North Atlantic as pictured in the above weather map that we would be going off right now. It’s just not strong enough I guess. I’m not counting the week completely out just yet though (even though the models are). I just can’t reconcile what I’m seeing the weather do with complete flatness, but I’m not always right. Unfortunately, the heat isn’t going to letup any time soon. I really hope the waves pick up so we can cool off in the water.
Next week could go off.
It is possible that all the weather I’m seeing setup now WILL make swell, just not this week. That’s what the models are calling for. Next week is showing a beautiful NW swell pointed right at us. So everything happening now might just be prep for the main event next week. Around this time of year we normally see one last NW swell before going quiet for the summer. Let’s see what happens.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.