Get ready to surf!
We have a lot of activity in the North Atlantic right now which will translate to many days of surf. Don’t expect anything huge, just decent head high waves and light to offshore winds almost every day. My stoke levels are through the roof at the moment. Personally, I prefer a long run of head high waves vs only a couple of huge days then flat. If you want bigger surf, the north side of the island will be going off. Especially early next week when the wind will be hard South if the current forecast plays out.
First NE swell then NNW swell.
The next couple of days will feature long period NE swell that should reach around to almost every break due to the long period. Then as early as Sunday we could see the NNW swell start to fill in. By Monday, the NNW swell should be in full effect and give us perfect waves at every north facing beach. The weather is about to get super hot. That much muggy and humid south wind makes for miserable heat when you’re out of the water. It’s best to just surf all day.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.