Good Surf Forecast for Rincon!
The weather changed things up a bit for the better. The same scenario i predicted is happening just a little more delayed and with a little more amplification. This means instead of a short window of swell we should have the entire weekend. The storm that couldn’t form got completely absorbed with the front and the front is going to setup beautifully over the Atlantic for an early dose of cold-front style swell. It’s not going to be huge, but I don’t think anyone is picky right now. Expect the swell to build a notch each day and max out on Saturday and fade out through Sunday. Monday will have some fun surf lesson leftovers here in Rincon. I’m expecting some head high fun on Saturday. Hope you got your dings fixed.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.