Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 10, 2015

Flatspell continues and will continue.

No significant swell generating systems for our foreseeable future. HOWEVER, the summer game plan of looking to the southeast for waves will still pay off. The dissipated tropical waves will continue to pass the island. Normally this would mean waves for the north coast of the island as well as the southeast, but the shear is just too high to allow enough strength in the waves to get a good pressure gradient swell for the north coast. The southeast will be the only option. Rincon will stay flat for what feels like forever. Some fun surf lesson waves might show up for families taking a last minute trip before school starts up at some point so I’ll still be watching the weather. Or you could always go fishing.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.