Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is looking impressive on Satellite imagery, more weather than surf is likely.
Whenever a storm is taking the route it’s currently taking toward PR we normally don’t see quality waves here in Rincon. Get ready for some wind and rain instead. It’s good time to make sure all your hurricane prep is done because historically speaking things will only get more active between now and October. As for surf, I imagine some of the east side spots and really exposed southeast spots should be seeing at least something by later today. After that just a garbage weather day is likely with small choppy waves and heavy current on most of Wednesday. We’ll have to see how it plays out with the actual path the storm will take for a better idea of the possibilities of waves on Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.