Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast, Feb 24, 2015

Windy conditions and background swell on the way.

Tomorrow and Thursday will feature calm winds and small to flat conditions due to some leftover background swell in the ocean. It will be more of a surf lesson wave at the most exposed breaks. The north side of the island could see some decent surf with calm winds in the morning. Friday is when the wind will crank out of the ENE to NE and it won’t stop through the remainder of the forecast period. Some groundswell might punch through, but it will be battered down a lot from all that wind pointing away from Rincon. The conditions should be super glassy at the tucked away spots, but whatever swell makes it through will not be too big. We should at least see some waist to chest high surf starting Friday though. The surf should stay in that range through to the middle of next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.