Windy wind chop with an extra side of wind.
The next several days will be dominated by non-stop ENE winds and tiny wrap-around wind chop for Rincon. I imagine the north side of the island will be a huge terrible mess over the next few days probably seeing 2-4ft overhead size with extreme blown-out conditions. The right morning might have some just regular chop to semi-chop at times, but by the afternoon it will be VAS conditions.
Now back to Rincon. We will have perfect surf lesson conditions for almost all of January. My January outlook is taking a terrible turn for the worse. We have one shot at some “good” days in Rincon during the month of January. That opportunity will come right smack dab in the middle of the month with the opportunity of getting some long period NE swell. Otherwise wind-fest will continue and all storms will pull off the states only to push massive swells at Europe. They will get nonstop surf over there. Every single storm is going to blow up and push all of it’s energy right at Europe. Rincon will only have the hope of NE backlash. I hope February has more opportunities for swell. I remember when we used to get at least one swell event a week this time of your (sometimes two). I miss those days. Looks like we’re down to one swell event per month (sometimes two).
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.