Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 23, 2017

Dealing without surf during a summertime flatspell in Rincon.

Just as there is no one way to grieve, there is no one way to find healing or peace during a summertime flatspell. Accepting your own emotional response as normal within the grieving process will help. Accepting where you are today, without judgement, is also critical. There is no timeline for a summertime flatspell. Period. The loss of surf creates a void; that void is real and cannot be replaced. In time, life will feel less chaotic. In time, and with the right support in place, the hurt and pain will feel less intense and less extreme. Some believe that in our grief and mourning during a summertime flatspell we find a way to relearn the world. The experience of living through the summertime flatspell in Rincon is different for everyone, but it is possible to get through it. Acceptance of the flatspell is an acknowledgement that your life is different now, and that your life before the loss of waves and life after the season can both have meaning.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way – here’s the surf forecast:

Flat in Rincon. All of the action is in the Pacific. Seems like there’s a new hurricane forming over there every day. Every tiny blob in the ITCZ is exploding in the Pacific as soon as it escapes the Atlantic and Caribbean. That pattern looks solid to continue for the next two weeks. There is an open wave just about every 15 degrees apart going east from here. There is tons of heat but the heavy sands/dry air and high pressure over the Atlantic will keep them at bay. They will all form intense storms in the Pacific. The nonstop flow of waves traveling in the lower Caribbean should at least keep the summertime spots in the SE corner of the island working. That’s the best call right now if you want to surf in Puerto Rico.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.