We have a solid swell on the way for the weekend!
The outside buoys are reading a decent amount of NE swell that should arrive Saturday and last through Sunday. We should have some surf in the head high to 2ft overhead range on both days. The NE angle and longer period might leave us with a little bit of wait between sets, but the quality of each wave should be really good. I’m anticipating good form on both days. Some of the good low tide spots should be a lot of fun. The Volcom contest should go off!
Next week should have fun leftovers and consistent run of smaller swell.
If you have been watching the satellite loop further down the page over the past couple of days you could see the double front setup that made this past week so fun. Now it’s time for the high pressure to build in behind the most recent storm. This should still lead to a NNE fetch of wind that should make some waves for Rincon. Though it’s not going to be as big as this current week was through next week, Rincon should be some fun small waist high waves just about every day with a possible bigger swell for next weekend.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.