Everyone is doing the happy dance! Surf is on the way!
The models have been calling for it, it’s showing up on the live buoy data, satellite imagery shows the wave generating coldfront in prime position, and it’s all coming together nicely! We should see the new swell show up tomorrow. Expect head high to overhead surf with decent conditions and no wind. There might be some wobble in it at first since the period isn’t too terribly long, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be good. The wind is still forecast to remain light through the weekend. The big swell for the weekend is no longer happening. This swell event will most likely go like this:
Wednesday – Swell shows up in the head high range with sets 2-3ft overhead.
Thursday – Swell still solid with head high to 2ft overhead surf.
Friday – Fading chest to head high surf.
Saturday – Waist to chest.
Sunday – Knee to Waist.
Of course, different spots will see different conditions, but for the most part the wind will be favorable for just about everywhere. Find a nice quiet beach and surf your brains out. Some spots may see bigger/smaller size but there should be plenty of surf to have fun.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.