Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 23, 2017

Slight adjustment to the surf forecast in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Surf from long period NE swell still on the way

We should definitely still see some long period swell show up this week. However, I think it’s going to be delayed a day more and perhaps not last as long as hoped for initially. The storm moved out and away quicker than anticipated and as a result, the fetch setup has changed. What happens on the outside buoys will be the best way to judge how long this next swell event will last. The long period swell first showed up on the far North Atlantic buoy at 7am today. Ordinarily it takes long period NE swell 48hrs to hit Rincon once it shows up on the North Atlantic buoy. This is why I’m guessing Thursday for the new arrival date of the swell. The worst case scenario would be a 7pm arrival on Wednesday night. If that happens the swell will peak overnight and we’ll have the leftovers on Thursday if the swell doesn’t last too long. How do we know how long it will last? If we see the swell stay on that buoy for a day or two we’ll know how much surf we’re going to get. I’ll be watching it closely. Even though this is the slower part of the season, it tends to be my most productive time. Having advanced notice of when the weekly or bi-weekly swell is going to show up helps me organize things better. The north side of the island (Isabela and Aguadilla) will still probably be the best place to get decent sized surf in the foot or two overhead range. Rincon will probably be waist to chest. The conditions should be glassy.

Plenty of weather in the extended forecast – more surf for Rincon!

From the looks of everything on satellite imagery of the United States, we should have some more surf lined up for next week and beyond. It’s good to have something to look forward to on the horizon. Such an active weather pattern will keep us surfing.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Northern Hemisphere Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.