Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Apr 12, 2017

Plenty of weather to keep us all surfing in Rincon.

Plenty of weather to keep us all surfing in Rincon.

I think this coming swell is going to be a lot of fun. We should have a decent little bump up in size for tomorrow in the head high to a foot overhead range and then a little drop in size for Friday in the chest high range. The weekend will be insanely busy, but should have plenty of surf. The winds are supposed to lay down through the weekend but pick up hard for the coming week. I hope the winds stay light. Light winds means countless chunks of coastline will be surfable and therefore a chance to surf without a crowd. Once the swell angle changes to the NNE to NE and gets a longer period behind it, the wait in between decent sets will get longer and frustration will easily build if you’re trying to surf a crowded spot.

If the swell delays slightly, Saturday could be the most frustrating day to go the beach. A major holiday weekend and tons of people looking for waves is fine if the waves are everywhere. But if the swell delays and only one or two spots have a decent wave, the whole island will pack into one break and fight it out. I want no part of that. The swell should definitely be here by Sunday though. If it shows up Saturday then great. Saturday might involve some travel time to find a secluded beach with surf to avoid aggression, disappointment, and feelings of worthlessness.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.