Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 1, 2015

Tropical Waves Sheared to Death – No Tropical Surf for Rincon.

I’ve been watching some monster open tropical waves and low pressure systems pull off Africa on satellite images. As they take the low road toward our island and approach the Caribbean they are sheared to pieces like logs in a wood chipper. There is no way anything will form down there this season. Super El Niño summer means that the wind shear will be 30-50kts the entire time. Caribbean storms are out of the picture in my book. I taunt the earth to prove me wrong (really hoping to be proven wrong). Unfortunately, the steering currents won’t lift any of the tropical waves up into the lower shear higher latitudes at this point. It will just continue to throw the storms into the chipper. The heat will amplify and the humidity will increase. Our location is basically serving as the upper level exhaust pipe of the Pacific Ocean’s insane heat machine. Fortunately, the ocean isn’t heating up drastically and the water is still refreshing.

Small chance of micro surf lessons bump on Monday or Tuesday.

Some weather will still persist in the Atlantic and it’s bound to throw a micro bump at our shores at the start of next week. Don’t get too excited, it’s mainly going to be fun for the kiddies. I wouldn’t call off work for it. Especially if you work in air conditioning.

Explore the island.

This island has so many unique locations are that awesome. You can find something incredibly beautiful and unique in several parts of the island. Lake fishing, waterfalls (there’s tons of them), rock climbing, find a new beach, diving, spearing, snorkeling, visit one of the tiny island around us, etc… find something new. Also remember, just because nothing is going to form in the Caribbean this year doesn’t mean that the magical south spots won’t have surf. They will have surf. It will just not be big. But at least with all the tropical waves passing by below the island we will have plenty of opportunities for waves in the southeast region of the island.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.