Possible Background Swell for the next couple of days. Surf? Maybe.
Ok so I’m expecting a little bump up in the surf that should be good enough for some fun surf lessons tomorrow. After that it may linger for a couple of days. More than likely, the real opportunity for fun chest high and bigger surf will be on the north side of the island (as usual this time of year). We don’t have a single particularly strong wave maker, but instead we have a few smaller, weaker systems that can push some ripples our way. Right now that is welcome. Any movement in the water this part of the island is more than welcome. It’s going to be hot so it’s a good time to be in the water.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.