Meet Tropical Storm Don – Any Surf?
For the southeast corner of the island – yes. For everywhere else – no. But at least we’re seeing the tropics start to pick up. Shear has been fairly heavy in our swell window lately which isn’t good for future waves that we would want to see form into storms north of PR and out in the open Atlantic. I still think we’re going to have some decent tropical surf this season. If you’re able to make the roadtrip over to the SE corner, Wednesday looks like the day to do it. When storms track as low as this one it tends to work in the favor of most of the spots over there and keeps the winds under control. Most of the swell will be from the movement of the storm itself so don’t expect much leftovers. When the main pulse hits it should have some head high surf with decent conditions. Also, there will probably be millions of people running over each other in the line-up at the most common SE spot.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.