Tropical Surf Possible Next Week for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
All of the conditions seem to be coming together nicely for 94L and just about every forecast model has been calling for development by this weekend for about a week now. I guess it’s safe to finally make mention of it in the forecast. I really don’t want to spook this thing away, but there really isn’t much working against the weather system currently. As far as surf goes, path will be the most important factor. We should have a developed storm any minute now, but where it goes will determine if any swell makes it into Rincon. The east coast of the island should be going off, and the north side of the island should see some head high and bigger surf as well. We’ll have to see what actually happens over the weekend, but we could possibly be surfing by Monday of next week here in Rincon. We have some background long period NE swell that might wrap in and sneak under the radar while we wait for 94L to do its thing so keep checking the report.
Wunderground has an awesome in-depth article about 94L and if you want to read it go to:
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.